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A Bunch of Fives

So when all is said and done, we count up the kicks, handballs, disposals, marks, frees, deliberates, tackles and  fouls and translate them  into goals and behinds. Then someone, somehow has to work out why it was so obviously going to be so and what will happen in the future!! That’s the unenviable task of our resident expert Professor Statto, Nobel Prize Winner in waiting, who’s been explaining the meaning of footy life and giving comfort to his followers for years.

He’ll tell you why your predictions were bound to be wrong. He’ll tell you about the most outrageous possibilities to come. He’ll tell you, he'll tell you and he'll tell you…But whatever he says, remember:

“98% of all statistics are made up.” ~Author Unknown

Professor Statto and his amazing statistics.

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Visit the Prof's 2010 season archives.

Visit the Prof's 2009 season archives.

Previous analysis

 Identity Revealed!

With top four positions at stake for both clubs, Hawthorn played tough finals like football to run out 12 point winners ensuring themselves of a top four finish for the first time since their 2008 premiership year. Carlton having not beaten Hawthorn since round 6, 2005 and lost the past seven games against them, needed to get off to a good start but were unable to do so as pressure applied by the Hawks forced them to fumble, resulting in costly turnovers which Hawthorn took full advantage of kicking four goals of their game total 10 in the first term, while holding the Blues to one goal. The trend continued up to five minute mark of the third term which had the Hawks leading by 45 points before a shift in momentum took over. Hawthorn appeared to tire while Carlton started to take risks creating runs and became the hunted instead of the hunter. Blues full back Michael Jamieson who had only kicked one goal in his 69 games was moved to the forward line which paid dividends, he kicked one goal but more importantly provided a target, gave a contest which brought the smaller players into the game and had the Blues within 12 points late in the last quarter. However they run out of time and will rue the loss that has seen them slip to fifth position on the ladder meaning more than likely an elimination final first up instead of a qualifying final possibly at Etihad Stadium a ground they don’t play that well on. Carlton must find a strong marking forward and now that Jameson is back perhaps they should release Henderson from the backline to be that man.

Adelaide 125 defeated Gold Coast 64

The Most disposals in VFL/AFL games since 1981!  Almost one here for the record books folks, as Crows midfielder Scott Thompson accumulated 51 disposals falling 2 short of the record held by Diesel Greg Williams in 1989. My only query being, how you rate the effort considering the style and tempo that has been played over these periods compare to today’s football which consists of short kicks and lots of hand ball meaning it’s easier to rack up possessions. Oh well as old timers say, the old days were better so let’s just leave it for discussion and the modern generation to back up the stats with a good old fashioned disagreement.  

Greg WILLAMS     53   1989 Sydney

Scott Thompson   51    2011 Adelaide

Ray Shaw             50    1991 Collingwood

Steven Malaxos   48    1987 West Coast

Peter Featherby   48    1981 Geelong

Dane Swan          48     2009 Collingwood

Gary Ablett          48     2009 Geelong

So two trips to Queensland by the Crows in three weeks, has seen them win both games with an honorable loss to the Cats in between. Nine and eight goals in the first and last quarters shows they are now consistently more attacking and coach Bickley and fans as well would like to see that style continue in the remaining two games against Richmond and in particular West Coast to see how they go against quality opposition. Remember the did beat Hawthorn in round one and this is very much the same team so why have they had such a disappointing season and not lived up to expectations bar Scott Thompson who we will exclude?

After being down by 44 points at quarter time, one very positive sign for Gold Coast was their character and pride in fighting their way back into the contest not like some other clubs have been doing this season. They won both the second and third terms but fell away in the last after playing catch up footy.

 Having lost all first quarters since round 11 bar one, if they can get off to a better start, the promising SUNS have much to look forward to for the rest of 2011-12.

West Coast 134 defeated Essesndon 77

On the large Patterson Stadium in 26 degree heat, Essendon who had only won nine of the past 48 games on the road, went into the game slightly undermanned and were prey for the taking.

With Carlton losing the night before opening up the chance of top four positions, West Coast Eagles had claws and beaks ready to swoop on the Bombers and after a slow start swooped into the battle taking a stranglehold on the contest from half time onwards after both sides had the same amount of inside 50s in the first half.

14 goals to four after half time, including the last seven of the match saw the in form Eagles soar to their fifth consecutive victory, their tenth of the past eleven, a remarkable transformation from last year's wooden spooners. 

Injuries to Walsh, Watson and Crameri over three quarters eventually took its toll on the Bombers, but despite losing by 57 points positive signs were there for Hird and Thompson to build on for the rest of the year, If they can beat Port next week then finals bound they are and if they get an elimination final at Etihad Stadium where they play their best footy then who knows what can happen. 

North Melbourne 143 defeated Fremantle 45 

North Melbourne have kept their finals aspirations alive with a comprehensive 98 point win over an injury riddled and broken hearted Fremantle at Etihad Stadium.

The Kangaroos' victory has moved them above Fremantle into ninth position, but will need to win games against St Kilda and Richmond and hope St Kilda, Sydney and Essendon drop games so they can move into the Eight.

Momentum is a great thing to have which North certainly have at the moment, but now is their moment of truth. With players returning from injury and finding form there are no excuses and its time to take some big scalps and make the footy world take notice. No more unacceptable losses should be tolerated, and if they happen to be behind at half time must be able to do better than what they have done this year winning only one game from eight when trailing at half time.

Injuries aside for Fremantle, damming statistics reveal they have terrible history at Etihad Stadium having lost the last four games against the kangaroos by an average margin of 62 points as well as having lost 14 of the past 16 to other teams.

To be fair and having said that, if we were to put other Victorian based clubs in the same travelling situation as Fremantle who have had 10 interstate trips this year I wonder how they would go and cope with injuries, poor form, as well as the development of young players, yes a tough gig indeed, lets cut them some slack.

Collingwood 102 defeated Brisbane 84 

Collingwood the only side this year yet to concede 100 points to the opposition had no trouble in keeping Brisbane at bay of the score board total to run out 18 point winners in an entertaining game which showcased a lot of youth who are the future and depth of both clubs.

The Lions, who since 2005 have only won two of their 13 games at the MCG, took the game right up to the Magpies laying 13 more tackles for the first quarter to open up a seven point lead, which had Coach MICKY MOUSE MALTHOUSE losing more grey hairs by the minute as he strode onto the ground in great disgust to let his feelings be known. Did he pick the player named Buckley as a disguise to let some steam off concerning the coaching situation, only he knows that oh and Eddie as well!

After quarter time the Pies who had, won 16 of 19 second terms this year, responded from the Malthouse blast to regain the 18 point lead with a five goal second term before stamping their authority with another five goals in the third to be in picnic mode entering the last quarter. Thinking of finals ahead and the game in control an uncharacteristic last term by the Magpies disappointed their fans and coach by not putting the final nail in the coffin and allowed the young Lions to kick five goals, of which three of them were the last of the match.

Brisbane who seem to be finding form nearing the end of the season have since round 18 have won a clearance from 43% of stoppages ranked third in the competition and with the triple r team of Rockliff, Redden and Rich as well as old stagers in Black and Decker Power, the new midfield generation is taking over giving hope to the fans and keeping coach Michael Voss in the job for another year at least. 

Sydney 83 Defeated St Kilda 68 

Sydney with backs to the wall after losing six of the past eight games overcome,  inaccurate goal kicking and put in a spirited performance to run out 15 point winners over a disappointing St Kilda team who lost their second straight game after rediscovering mid season form. The Saints who had won eight of their past nine opening first quarters got off to a good start once again and looked the competitive St Kilda we have come to know scoring three first term goals to open up a 10 point lead.

How ever, from then on Sydney dominated the game in two crucial areas. They won the hit outs 62-32, and the inside 50s (68-52) which gave them control over the game while denying the Saints the opportunity to dictate play as they normally like to do. But for inaccurate kicking for goal by the Swans in which they kicked 10 consecutive behinds in the second term the result could have and should have been far greater, this has been one of their main problems this season which sees them with a scoring accuracy of 53%, the second worst in the competition, come finals time if they are to make them, this will have to improve if they are to be a major player.

So it will be hard work over the next two weeks for both these clubs if they are to play finals, Sydney play Geelong then Brisbane , while St Kilda play North Melbourne then Carlton, who will be there when it counts stay tuned for more will be revealed.

Western Bulldogs 157 Defeated Port Adelaide 97

Got me thinking on this one, has there ever been a better way to start your coaching career as fill in coach Paul Williams has experienced? I reckon his only concern going into the match would have been a requirement of at least a minimum 10 goal win no, need to worry about the four points, they were done and dusted before the game was started considering Port had lost to the previous two games to heavy weights Collingwood by 138 points and Hawthorn 165 points, completely emptying any confidence and form that was left in the tank.

Kicking the first 10 unanswered goals of the match had the pre match bench mark covered before quarter time which extended to 74 points at half time. The winning margin was on track to be thereabouts to the previous two blowouts before the Bulldogs began to drop off the pace which allowed Port to put some respectability to their score kicking five goals in the third term and six goals in the last to end up losing by yep, 10 goals something Williams in the years to come can one day say he coached his first AFL game to a 10 goal win wouldn’t that be an good story to tell.

As Always the next new star is always around the corner ready to pop up when the chance arrives, Western Bulldogs first gamer Jason Tutt scored three goals from his first three kicks, while Port player John Butcher carried on his good form in just his second game kicking six goals. Let’s hope he stays with Port to be the new Warren Tredrea which will give a breath of fresh air to currently stale club. 

Richmond 117 Defeated Melbourne 110 

When it matters most, those that care and are concerned, step up to the plate, show their passionate to the cause and deliver the goods. Richmond who had only won three first quarters for this season jumped Melbourne at the start with a six goal first quarter showing they meant business and were there for the day and wanted the four points. In the first half the Tigers won the contested possession count 78-69 and dominated the inside 50s count 30-18 taking control of the match leading by 26 points at half time.

To Melbourne’s credit they did show some resistance and produced a seven goal third term to be eight points up at three quarter time, but when the game was there for the taking Richmond wanted it more and playing the more polished and desperate football kicked six goals in the last quarter to over run Melbourne and win by seven points. Based on their performances over the past 2 rounds there'll be no emergency call up for Maruading Maurie who'll have to wait till next season now!

Melbourne players must make a statement in their remaining two games against Gold Coast and Port and win by at lest 50 points ore more, any thing less then questions and action must be taken at seasons end to change the culture and fabric of the club if they are to make the next step.

What we also want to see is Richmond being competitive in the remaining two games and show the same passion they displayed against Melbourne. This week’s interstate trip against Adelaide is a danger game for them and will test their resolve in a game one would think they should win, and then the following week they play the Roos who possibly will be striving for a finals piece of the action. Interesting times ahead for these two teams, if they care. 

Bye Geelong                 

And with those results in the bag once again we saw no jackpot winner. Just a couple of goes left folks! The average Score Fiver picked up 25.53 points, well less than Daics who pulled off a 33 job and a shade less than Magic Mike's 28. 86% of you bagged an 8 or 10 point banker leaving 13 of you in the Last Man Standing Pool. Here's how the bankers went... 

Round 22 - Score Five Tippers, the bookies and Bankers lives 

						Of the players selecting game as banker
Home team	Odds	Vs	Away team	Odds	% Players Bankers	Home Banker %	Away Banker %	Draw %
Carlton	2.24	v	Hawthorn	1.72	25.48%	34.37%	65.04%	0.59%
Gold Coast	4.61	v	Adelaide	1.24	2.67%	17.63%	82.22%	0.15%
West Coast	1.32	v	Essendon	3.55	1.63%	90.96%	8.74%	0.30%
Collingwood	1.03		Brisbane	21.0	66.52%	99.56%	0.30%	0.15%
N. Melb'ne	1.36	v	Fremantle	3.35	1.33%	83.56%	16.00%	0.44%
Sydney	2.35	v	St Kilda	1.64	0.15%	41.33%	58.37%	0.30%
Port Adelaide	5.75	v	Western Bulldogs	1.19	1.63%	6.37%	93.33%	0.30%
Melbourne	2.22	v	Richmond	1.75	0.59%	41.48%	57.93%	0.59%

 And on the points range front it was another barren week for the 31 - 50 range which seems to have ceeded scores to the 51+ range this season - maybe all those tired legs with the new subs rules!

The Score Five Footy "8 Correct Results Tipped Club" 

Congratulations to... Daics   rvander1   tohmassage   Sanjode   battlestarnewyork   rdesantos   chewylizard   nooker   memorabilia_australia

Umaking   REBEL.G   gljuwa   mark stone   Nels   septicinoz   footydummy   John Makris   spanishflea65   marn   The King

chuddie   tea for two   Liz McHugh   hhamzah   Thorpy   noodles   fayellen   chinny   magpiekim   sgoughie   futura97

carby67   olmagooby   Katie G   tahlijac   BushyG   Tim Daborn   ctz   billyb   my 5

who become our newest inductees having  tipped all eight basic results correctly in Round 22.

Our brightest and best - Round 22

Congratulations to the best of our tippers and topping the Round 22 charts, cut off  33  points or better, namely Footydummy who takes the round and Yingmeow who continues to lead the global ladder:

Here's how the global top 10 looks like right now with everything to play for!

Rank	Player	Round Points	Total Results	Total Range	Total Bonus	Total Banker	Grand Total
1	yingmeow 88	31	393	68	57	105	623
2	aussieshadow 8	29	396	66	55	100	617
3	Chris Fisher8 888	24	402	59	47	105	613
4	johnlovesbeer 88	31	399	59	49	105	612
5	rdesantos $ 888	29	396	58	45	110	609
5	johnnolan2000 $ 88	25	378	67	54	110	609
7	logician 888	32	399	57	47	105	608
7	bazzo $ 88	30	381	64	53	110	608
9	slord 8	28	384	66	52	105	607
10	WMurray 88888	28	390	60	49	105	604
10	MaxVonMuffman	28	393	60	46	105	604

 Any one of the above could still win the season long comp - so "Play on" guys & girls!

Round 23 odds and a little banker help

 Once again it's the usual suspects. Pies, Cats, Port and Suns to either carry on winning or losing! Take your pick. Tilnext week folks---Good luck!

Prof Statto