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A Bunch of Fives

So when all is said and done, we count up the kicks, handballs, disposals, marks, frees, deliberates, tackles and  fouls and translate them  into goals and behinds. Then someone, somehow has to work out why it was so obviously going to be so and what will happen in the future!! That’s the unenviable task of our resident expert Professor Statto, Nobel Prize Winner in waiting, who’s been explaining the meaning of footy life and giving comfort to his followers for years.

He’ll tell you why your predictions were bound to be wrong. He’ll tell you about the most outrageous possibilities to come. He’ll tell you, he'll tell you and he'll tell you…But whatever he says, remember:

“98% of all statistics are made up.” ~Author Unknown

Professor Statto and his amazing statistics.

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Visit the Prof's 2010 season archives.

Visit the Prof's 2009 season archives.

Previous analysis

Tigers Spoil Jackpot

Greetings All!

What an intersting weekend we just saw with, once again, some BIG BIG scores and winnning margins. But what about those Tigers eh? Just when you thought they were out of it...Boing !! and they bounce back with a handy win against top eight team Sydney. Well done guys - Marauding Maurie will have to wait another week at least before the big call up.

It was an OKish week from the points front with the average Score Fiver getting 27.59 points. This was a shade under Magic Mike's 28 points and a couple or so under Daics' 30 points. But 96% of you did get an 8 or 10 point banker (roughly 50:50) on that front leaving 14 still in the Last Man Standing comp. We also had 13 inductees into the Eight Correct Tips Club.

Collingwood 89 defeated St Kilda 70

With much anticipation, round 20 kicked off on Friday night with the entire footy world and St Kilda fans, in particular, wondering whether they had fully returned to their 2010-11 form which enabled them to play in successive grand finals. Having won the past six games, questions were still being asked of the Saints as of the six wins three of them had been against Port, Crows and Gold Coast. Not what you would call great competition, but at the same time when you are lacking confidence and form any win will do just to try and recapture it to get your season back on track which the Saints had managed to do.

Playing the reigning premiers who had won their past three games by an average margin of 90 points, St Kilda, despite losing by 19 points recorded the third lowest losing margin by any team against Collingwood this year proving that they will be stiff competition for the rest of the year. Again hard running play from the Magpie backline enabled them to break the typical hard pressing Saints game plan with Leon Davis having 30 kicks and two goals, while his co-defenders Ben Johnson (32) disposals, Ben Reid (21) and Harry Obrien (22) had an abundance of the ball which unsettled the forward line of St Kilda.

In last weeks edition I thought Leon Davis would match up on Saints Live wire Stevie Milne who would make Milne accountable with his running from the back line, but Harry O' was the man to pick him up and did the job to perfection keeping the excitement machine quiet.

Milne who had kicked 18 goals in past four games was kept goalless until the 23 minute mark of the final quarter before he kicked his one and only goal which took him to most goals kicked (300) at Etihad Stadium, what a great effort.

Carlton 115 defeated Fremantle 85

With so much at stake between these two clubs Carlton brushed aside their dismal past record against Fremantle to record an easy 30 point victory keeping hold of fourth position on the ladder, while Fremantle have now slipped out of the top eight making their chances of playing finals slim unless upsets in the three remaining games opens the door for them to sneak back in.

Fremantle who had won three of the past four games against Carlton and 12 of the past 14 since 2002 included ruckman Aaron Sandilands who was playing his second game since round 10 into the team in an attempt to dominate the ruck duels and clearances. But this was a desperate move which failed to have any major impact other than probably preventing the loss from being greater considering the blues dominance in the midfield and around the ground.

Fifteen Carlton players won at least one clearance of the teams 43-25 domination,and  had 64 more disposals which allowed them to control the play and slow the running game of Fremantle down which you need to do. They also had the more potent forward line with eleven goal kickers. Eddie Betts was the main scorer with six goals. Interestingly, although Carlton dominated, they only went inside 50 eight more times for the game and at one stage led by 57 points after half time, before the Dockers reduced the lead to make the score board more respectable and hide their deficiency in not being able to kick goals when it matters. So Carlton now face the Hawks and must win if they are to stay in fourth spot while Fremantle travel to Etihad Stadium to play the Kangaroos in another tough game for them.

Hawthorn 197 defeated Port Adelaide 32 

Hard to believe Port Adelaide defeated Hawthorn by six points in rd 18 lat year What's gone wrong?

To put this simply in perspective folks, two players in Franklin (6.0. 36) and Rioli (6.1.37) both scored more than Port Adelaide’s team total 5.2.32 and for the second week in a row Port recorded their greatest losing margin in the history of the club of 165 points eclipsing last weeks record loss of 138 points to Collingwood in the wet.

Where to now? For this once competitive club who went goalless in the first and last quarters and allowed Hawthorn to have 15 different goal kickers which, by the way, was one player short of the record of 16 goal kickers held by Essendon, Fremantle and West Coast. 

There were only 23 contested marks taken for the game, 14 by Hawthorn and nine by Port, highlighting the ease in which Hawthorn were allowed to play as they like.

For the Hawthorn record books, the winning margin eclipsed the 160 point of Essendon in round 20 1992, as well as it being their highest score bettering the 28.27.195 scored against Fitzroy in round 21 1991.

How will Hawthorn respond this week under the pressure to be applied in particular to the ball carrier from what you would expect to be a fired up Carlton side desperately needing victory to stay in the top four? BRIING IT ON!!!!

Essendon 150 defeated Western Bulldogs 101

A more polished and sustained effort over four quarters this week by Essendon resulted in them winning by 49 points. This has moved them to seventh spot on the ladder, six points clear of ninth placed Fremantle meaning they are a step closer to playing finals with three rounds remaining. Essesndon have now won seven of their eight games at Etihad Stadium this year, the only loss being to North Melbourne in round 13 with their lowest total winning score being 100 points. Wouldn’t they love to get a home final there (?) which could be on the cards in the first week depending on where the Victorian clubs finish on the ladder.

Essendon were more direct, controlled and used the ball better despite the Bulldogs winning the contested ball 169-143, disposals 373-360, inside 50s 69- 59  and Barry Hall contributing, kicking 6 goals.

Given that the Doggies won the above stats, but lost the game poor old Rodney Eade must be scratching his head as to where to go from here for the rest of the season with the finals all but over and his coaching job in question. Does he develop youth or try and win the remaining games to protect his job?

One thing is for sure, the search for a new full forward is on the agenda. What will they do without Barry Hall next season? The big fella has moved into 15^th spot on the all time goal kicking lis,t passing Peter Hudson and Wayne Carey to have 731 career goals and closing in on Saints Bill Mohr (735), Blues Steven Kernahan (738) and Pies Sav Rocca (748).

Brisbane 123 defeated Gold Coast 61

Having lost the inaugural round 3 clash by three points earlier in the season, Brisbane were seeking redemption this time and found it with a commanding 63 point win over their cross town rival Gold Coast. Brisbane looked sharper and established a 22 point lead in the first quarter and were never subsequently headed and led by 38 point at three quarter time. Despite having only won a league low five last quarters this year, they were determined not to loose another and the match. Responding with eight goals to record their fourth win of the season, they moved one game clear of the wooden spoon race between Port and Gold Coast. One would think that with upcoming games against Collingwood (A), West Coast (H) and Sydney (A), wins will be tough going for them which should see them finish third last.

Gold Coast, who have not had a bye since round 9 and have played eight of the past 12 games against teams who in that time have been in the top eight, maybe were looking and playing tired football. Remember they were only playing Brisbane, but were smashed in the ruck 53-26 lost the clearances 50-28 and were terrible by foot with 57 of their 196 kicks ineffective. They finish off the season with games against Adelaide (H), Melbourne (A) and Hawthorn (H) with a reasonable chance of wining them all except Hawthorn, and will make their MCG debut in their first year against Melbourne. 

West Coast 110 defeated Melbourne 62

As expected West Coast were far to strong for Melbourne running out 48 point winners in front of only 15,709 dedicated fans, who found themselves being rewarded with the option of front row or second tier seats at Etihad Stadium after the top section was closed off due the disappointing Crowd.  A 14-3,clearace advantage by the Eagles in the second term produced seven goals to brake the game apart and open up a handy 47 point lead at half time. To Melbourne’s credit they did not capitulate this time when tested and even showed some spirit laying 26 tackles for the third term after only having 20 in the first half which helped them pave the way for a five goal third term reducing the margin to a respectable 32 points at last change. The Demons who have an average losing margin of 65 points continued to be competitive in the last term to only go down by 48 points showing improvement is slowly returning.

With Mick Malthouse as special comments in the commentary box, one wonders whether he was there for that sole reason...Or was he there to have a sneak preview of who he could potentially be coaching next year? With a tweak of the list and continued development of younger players, what a great opportunity awaits him or could he be tempted to return to the Dogs where he started his coaching career back in 1984 if Rodney Eade departs for his reasons (other opportunities) or the club's reasons (SACKED)!

Richmond 99 defeated Sydney 56

Well done Richmond, but unless you were Tigers supporters, you had to ruin the party for the rest of us and prevent us from getting the perfect 8/8 in the footy tipping this week.

Having lost eight of the past nine games, the Tigers clawed their way to an impressive 43 point win over a disappointing Sydney who have let slip the chance to cement themselves in the top eight, a position they have held since round 6 and a possible home ground advantage in the first week of the finals.

Sydney, who are just in eighth position, two points and percentage in front of Fremantle, will have to be at their very best if they are to hold on to play finals with up coming games against St Kilda (H), Geelong (A) and Brisbane (H) .

While on occasions this year I have highlighted Melbourne’s poor record at Etihad Stadium and Fremantle’s at the MCG it would be an in justice if I were not to mention Sydney who have now lost 11 of their past 13 outings at the G, the home of football, and the ground they won the 2005 grand final against West Coast. Which raises the question would they have won it if on that day they were playing a Melbourne based club? Oh well  you do need some luck to win grand finals as well as the tribunals decision not to suspend Barry Hall.

So the Tiger stars in Cotchin, Martin, Deledio and Riewoldt along with Houlli and Nahas put it all together to help Richmond have 6½ wins for the season so far compared to a total of six wins last year. THREE more wins are possible if they want them considering they play Melbourne (H), Adelaide (A) and North Melbourne (H), it’s up to you TIGERS, SO COME ON. 

Geelong 96 defeated Adelaide 85

It took 11 goal kickers out of a team total 14 by Geelong to hold off a very much rejuvenated and improved Adelaide Crows outfit. That’s the difference between the good teams who find a way to win when things don’t seem to be going their normal way. Geelong took until the 24 minute mark of the first quarter to kick their first goal and with the inform Stevie Johnson up forward not dominating like he had been in previous weeks the Cats had to find other options which they were able to do.

Adelaide have transformed themselves since fill-in coach Mark Bickley has taken over, considered one of the worst teams this year for clearances the Crows won the stoppages 39-20 against the mighty Geelong midfield and gained the advantage of inside 50s 54-49 and were able to kick a total of 12 goals, not a bad effort against normally tight Cats backline.

With successive victories over Port, Brisbane and this effort against Geelong may be Mark Bickley will do a Paul Roos favorite son of the club scenario and get voted in as coach not by the board but by the supporters and players who want him. Win against the Suns, Tigers and Eagles and the job is his which would be a good one to get as they can't go any lower than they have been.

After two easy wins against the Suns and Demons this was the type of match that Geelong needed before having the bye this week, then rounding off the home and away season against Sydney (H) and Collingwood (A). 

Bye North Melbourne 

And following all of that here's how you went for your bankers! 

Round 21 - Score Five Tippers, the bookies and Bankers lives

We had a drought of close games so the 1 - 10 point range undid a lot of you this week. Here's the overall stats so far:

The Score Five Footy "8 Correct Results Tipped Club" 

Congratulations to 13 of you namely...Hoodster   mongrel   puregreen   rob@yarra-junction   stelis   lindaweger   marcas   Shammy  celinaryan   cruiser   Don Scott   eleni   and   julpin who become our newest inductees having  tipped all eight basic results correctly in Round 21.

Our brightest and best - Round 21

Congratulations too to the best of our tippers and topping the Round 21 charts, cut off  35  points or better, namely:

Shammy takes the round title by virtue of the tie breaker rules. And on the global front just 11 points separate the top five headed once again by Yingmeow. In 6th place is overseas AFANA supremo RdeSantos based in the USA. Might we see the title go overseas for the first time? Check out the AFANA website folks, there some great news in it and they,ve been good friends of Score Five for three seasons now and the greta game of footy for much longer!

Round 22 odds and a little banker help

Its going to be a cracker of a game between the Blues and Hawks - there's an outside chance that this could be a draw, as could the Dees/Tigers game and (dare I say it?) the Swans/Saints game. So those of you looking for a "Last Chance Saloon" roll of the dice on winning the best round prize might want to consider them. But on the bankers front it has to be the Pies again and for those of you who can't back the Pies on principle, there's always the Doggies.

Till next week folks have fun and good luck.

Prof Statto