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A Bunch of Fives

So when all is said and done, we count up the kicks, handballs, disposals, marks, frees, deliberates, tackles and  fouls and translate them  into goals and behinds. Then someone, somehow has to work out why it was so obviously going to be so and what will happen in the future!! That’s the unenviable task of our resident expert Professor Statto, Nobel Prize Winner in waiting, who’s been explaining the meaning of footy life and giving comfort to his followers for years.

He’ll tell you why your predictions were bound to be wrong. He’ll tell you about the most outrageous possibilities to come. He’ll tell you, he'll tell you and he'll tell you…But whatever he says, remember:

“98% of all statistics are made up.” ~Author Unknown

Professor Statto and his amazing statistics.

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Visit the Prof's 2010 season archives.

Visit the Prof's 2009 season archives.

Previous analysis

The Last Chance Saloon

Greetings All,

Twenty three down and one to go...It's load up the stakes and have one more throw of the dice in the Last Chance Saloon! Round 23 was a very average round for us all at Score Five Footy. The number of tipsters was down because of a computer outage affecting HQ in Hong Kong meaning that a number of you weren't able to get your tips in. That's a shame but we have said many times get some provisional tips in and fine tune them Don't leave it till the last minute. Anyways Daics and Magic both had disappoinitng scores of 23 and 20 respectively meaning that the average Scor eFiver's 24.02 points beat them. Well done all.

With the completion of round 23, one more round remains for the teams who will fail to make the eight. The Power, Suns and Lions will fill the bottom three positions and played to expectations. The Dogs, Demons and Crows were simply not good enough while the Tigers and Roos did not take their opportunities when presented which leaves Fremantle who were brave despite being decimated with injuries for the majority of the season. So for those of you who dreamt of your team playing finals this year scream, barrack, cheer or applaud those players who will no longer grace the field next year, such as the case with Barry Hall who will wave good-bye. Meanwhile here are a few stats and highlights from around the grounds for Round 23:

Collingwood 132 defeated Fremantle 52

In a well planned and executed trip, the Magpie machine showed no mercy or compassion over the injury depleted Dockers to emphatically run out 80 point winners guaranteeing themselves of finishing top spot on the ladder at the end of the 2011 home and away season. Needing only one more win, meaning they will most likely play West Coast at the MCG in the first week of the finals and with individual spots up for team selection in the coming weeks, Collingwood made sure mission was completed. Six goals in the first and second quarters followed by five in the third term highlights their pre game intentions, the work rate that was required and the manner in which it was executed. In fact 13 unanswered goals kicked in 75 minutes between the first and third quarters saw the lead blow out to 91 points before Collingwood eased off allowing Fremantle to kick six of the last ten goals of the match to prevent it possibly being a record margin.                                                       

While Fremantle will do their best to field a team this week with possibly only 23 players to choose from - which has been the pattern of their season - they'll have a think about this folks as the Pies have their own worries tying to fit into the side Wellingham, Shaw, Maxwell, Ball and Tarrant when the finals start, a nice problem to have with a practice match this week against the Cats.

Hawthorn 113 defeated Western Bulldogs 67

With a top four position assured, and only needing victory to keep their appointment with Geelong in the first week of finals, Hawthorn played somewhat conservative football to run out 48 point winners as they recorded their seventh consecutive win. The Western Bulldogs backline did well in the first half to restrict the potent Hawks forward line to seven goals from 32 inside 50s (32-19) to be only 10 points down at half time before Hawthorn started to assert their influence on the game. The Hawks had a game total, 63 more marks, 108 more kicks and 33 more inside 50s (65-32) which eventually broke any resistance the Doggies had to score 9 goals to four in the second half.

As mentioned by Magic Mike in his weekly tipping column, Hawthorns suspect backline against strong marking power forwards was put to the test against Big Barry Hall and Liam Jones taking on Hawks defenders in Josh Gibson and Ryan Schoenmakers. Six goals out of a team total 10 and 14 marks between the big forwards from only 32 inside 50s tell us that’s partly why the Hawks like to control the ball so much as well as retaining possession which uses up valuable game time and restricts the opposition from having some many marking contests and scoring opportunities once inside 50. It will be worth the wait until two weeks time when team structures and tactics are put to the test against the best teams under pressure, ah that’s the great thing about finals.

Sydney 99 defeated Geelong 86

Ah what a great game we had, just when everyone including the Geelong Advertiser who pre game printed a souvenir feature article proclaiming 30 straight wins at Skilled Stadium got it wrong as Sydney produced one of the upsets of the year. The greatest ever home ground consecutive winning sequence in VFL/AFL history came to an end which will have Geelong in the record books with 29 wins at Skilled Stadium. Ironically what a fitting way to see the wining sequence come to an end with the ground no longer to be named Skilled Stadium from next year due to a change in naming sponsor rights. SKILED ENGINEERING after a decade has decided not to renew the contract so a suitable option will be looked at for the start of next season as well as a new grandstand with the old Doug Wade stand to be pulled down in further developments of the ground. So with seven home games next year at the ground, the new challenge of breaking the record begins.

Geelong came off the bye and settled nicely in second position were confronted by a committed Sydney Swans team who were desperately trying to stay in the eight after a well deserved victory the previous week against St Kilda. So determined were the Swans they won the contested clearance count against the mighty Cats midfielders 56-34, won all four quarters in what was a tight game and found a way to kick 15 goals against the normally strong Cats backline who lost Harry Taylor in the second term with concussion. Sydney will now have their sights set on a home final and should they win against Brisbane and St Kilda lose against Carlton, they will more than likely will get the home final but one wonders which ground that might be, the small confines of the short SSG which has in the past suited their style or the longer ANZ Stadium which is not in the best of condition.  Mr. Demetrio will make the call, let’s wait and see when all is revealed?

St Kilda 135 defeated North Melbourne 70

Got to be disappointed if you are a Kangaroo fan, 20 points up at the 17 minute mark of the second term and then let St Kilda kick the next nine goals and end up losing by 65 points. Now according to my maths that is an 85 point turn around between two teams who were supposedly desperate to play finals.

St Kilda was great and played tough competitive football as they know how. Once again their defensive part of the game was crucial which saw them only have 9 more inside 50s than the Roos yet were able to restrict them to a score of 10.10 compared to their own score of 19.21.

With Roos forward Drew Petrie well held for the second week in a row, North were unable this week to find the smaller crumbing forwards or other marking options they had against Fremantle, that’s the difference when playing St Kilda, when on their game its hard going and so difficult to score against. Great players stand up when under the spot light and in this case Saints skipper Nick Riewoldt who had come under heavy scrutiny in recent weeks produced his best game for some time kicking five goals, while love him or hate him Stevie Milne kicked four goals to take him past the half century mark (52) for the fifth time in his 11 year career.

The Saints great record at Etihad Stadium continues, they have now won the past 25 Saturday night games, the last loss being round nine 2003 against Collingwood and while some clubs this week fine tune and rest players before the finals start, not so the Saints who must beat Carlton if they are to host a home final possibly against Essendon. Now what a game that would be!

West Coast 89 defeated Brisbane 81

A surprise pre-match retirement announcement by Brisbane veteran Luke Power caught not only his teammates off guard, but also the crowd as well, which consisted of only 13,500 fans who turned up presuming it was "just another game". It was a disappointing way to send off the 282 gamer and 3 time premiership player in his final farewell match at the GABBA, but it did provide them with extra motivation to try and send off the little champion in a fitting way and looked likely before a late charge by West Coast denied Brisbane the fairytale finish they were so looking for.

Although it was 4th v 15th on the ladder, West Coast had to work really hard to combat the pressure by the Lions who laid 22 more tackles (96-74) in wet conditions which didn’t suit the fast running and strong marking Eagles who found themselves trailing by 29 points at the 20 minute mark of the third term.

However the stronger bodies and class by the more seasoned players came to the fore which saw them kick eight out of the last 10 goals to snatch victory for the first time at the GABBA since 2006 as well as the first win over Brisbane since 2008. With the first final at the MCG against Collingwood and Melbourne’s unpredictable weather, the Eagles may have gained valuable experience playing in the wet revealing any changes or strategy they may need to change.

Richmond 121 defeated Adelaide 99

In a high scoring game, Richmond trailing by 24 points midway through the third term kicked 10 out of the last 12 goals to record their eighth win of the season with the strong possibility of finishing the season in ninth position making it seven times since 1994.

Both teams were in good form and desperate for a win. So it was a shoot out affair in the first quarter as both teams kicked a combined 12 goals with Adelaide leading by 13 points which was extended to 16 points at half time. A six goal third term by the Tigers had them leading by four points at last change and in the end 12 more scoring shots at goal for the game swayed the result in their way which was a keenly contested match for both clubs as they tried to finish the season on a good note.

Reigning Coleman Medalist Tiger full forward Jack Riewoldt who has kicked 59 goals this season and is currently sitting in third position, looks likely to relinquish the title to Hawks champ Buddy Franklin who has 71 for the season and plays the Gold Coast in the final round meaning another bag is there for the taking unless Nathan Bock can shut him down.

Melbourne 112 defeated Gold Coast 82

A wipe of the brow and relief for all concerned at Melbourne in this game folks as the Demons kicked six goals in the third term to put some distance between the Gold Coast before finally running out 40 point winners making it their first win since beating Port Adelaide in round 17.

Had Melbourne lost, who knows what action would of taken place? But be prepared, because the pressure to win will stay on them for another week which sees them play Port Adelaide at Adelaide Oval next Sunday and the way Port are playing they must be worth tipping.

The fact that the SUNS got to within 17 points in the last quarter after trailing by 35 points at three quarter time should not sit well with the Melbourne board and must raise the question has sacking Dean Bailey before the season's end helped the club out at all?

One thing is for sure the players have a lot to answer for and there should be some nervous ones concerned about their playing future come delisting time with a new coach in the waiting and having observed their performances this season.

Gold Coast ticked another box off as this was their first time on the MCG. It has taken 23 rounds to get the opportunity in what has been a long, but generally satisfying season in their inaugural year that has given them a taste of what it’s all about and what they need to do next year individually and as a club to improve. This season has seen 33 players make their debut which is just two players short of the record set by St Kilda who in 1909 had 35 players make their debut that season.

Essesndon 120 defeated Port Adelaide 113

Would some one please tell me who the Bombers are as I am not sure? Was this the same side that beat the undefeated Geelong on the same ground in round 15 yet found themselves 34 points down at the seven minute mark of the final quarter against the bottom team on the ladder then kicked the next seven goals to win the match?

They tell me this mob have a bye this week and then will be playing first week of the finals, for their sake I hope its at Etihad stadium where the fast indoor track tends to suit them better than the big open outdoor arenas, that’s unless its against Carlton who left the Bombers with bitter memories from the 1999 Preliminary final and they would love nothing more than to return to the same venue (MCG) and repay the deed, well they might get their chance so long as the ladder positions remain as is.

As one champion leaves this great game, another one eventually fills the void and in this case we might have found two more in the one game on opposing sides who will keep the turn styles ticking over for the next few years at least. Bombers Michael Hurley and Port's John Butcher as forwards for their respective teams played starring roles kicking four goals each and were the go to men and looked very comfortable playing that role.

Let's hope Port Adelaide can keep the exciting forward at the club which will rejuvenate the team knowing they have a competitive beast to kick to up forward which reminds me of former Port star forward Warren Tredrea. A potential forward line consisting of Butcher, Robbie Gray and Justin Westhoff when on their games gives new hope and faith for the struggling Port fans to hang in there when the chips are down, after all isn’t that what supporting a team is all about.

In the Last Man Standing comp were down to the "Magnificant Seven" namely GameTipper, JohnNolan2000, bazzo, Samp, jgrot, bzerk and Goats Nuts. Well done all looks like we'll need the tiebreaker test to find our winner here. Meanwhile here's the weekly analysis of who you banked on and how you fared.

Round 23 - Score Five Tippers, the bookies and Bankers lives 

						Of the players selecting game as banker
Home team	Odds	Vs	Away team	Odds	% Players Bankers	Home Banker %	Away Banker %	Draw %
Fremantle	12.50	v	Collingwood	1.05	52.19%	2.42%	97.28%	0.30%
Melbourne	1.11	v	Gold Coast	8.25	2.27%	90.77%	8.93%	0.30%
Geelong	1.09	v	Sydney	8.65	27.08%	97.58%	2.27%	0.15%
Hawthorn	1.13	v	Western Bulldogs	7.05	2.27%	98.18%	1.66%	0.15%
Essendon	1.04	v	Port Adelaide	14.0	12.56%	97.88%	1.97%	0.15%
Brisbane	3.85	v	West Coast	1.30	1.36%	8.77%	90.92%	0.30%
St Kilda	1.76	v	N. Melb'ne	2.16	1.66%	53.56%	45.54%	0.91%
Adelaide	1.41	v	Richmond	3.30	0.61%	86.08%	13.31%	0.61%

The Score Five Footy "8 Correct Results Tipped Club" 

Congratulations to...No-one! there we no 8-result tippers this round.

Our brightest and best - Round 23

Congratulations to the best of our tippers and topping the Round 23 charts, cut off  32  points or better. ChicagoRay continues the fine tradition of the AFANA league punching above its weight taking the title with 35 points while our good friend Yingmeow still leads the global league and has a useful 8 point lead over Chris Fisher and Aussieshadow with johnlovesbeer not out of it either. Indeed one or more draws this coming round and we could see some major changes in the final standings:

Round 23 odds and a little banker help

Frankly folks I'd be staying clear of the Pies & Cats this week. The Hawks are an obvious pick as are the Swans and Doggies, but remember for the top 8 it's mostly a case of avoiding injuries for the finals and for the lower teams playing for contracts next season so anyhting could happen. The Tigers/North game strikes me as a potential 28 pointer as does the Blues/Saints and Port/Dees if you're looking for the upset draws!

'Til next week good luck folks and have fun.

Prof Statto